At the beginning of this year, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution", which clearly proposed a "timetable" for further strengthening the control of plastic pollution:
timetable
In 2020, the production, sale, and use of certain plastic products will be prohibited and restricted in certain regions and fields
In 2022, the consumption of disposable plastic products significantly decreased, and alternative products were promoted
The establishment of a comprehensive management system for plastic products in 2025 has effectively controlled plastic pollution
This' Opinion 'is regarded as an upgraded version of the' plastic restriction order '12 years ago, from' plastic restriction 'to strengthening' ban and restriction ', which effectively and orderly addresses plastic pollution control.
The Opinion states that in the field of express plastic packaging, by 2022, postal and express delivery outlets in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other provinces and cities will first prohibit the use of non degradable plastic packaging bags, disposable plastic woven bags, etc., and reduce the use of non degradable plastic tape. By 2025, postal and express delivery outlets are prohibited from using non degradable plastic packaging bags, plastic tape, disposable plastic woven bags, etc.
As a result, compared to 2019, the impact of the plastic ban will lead to a potential increase of 16.59 billion pieces in demand for paper packaging express delivery and 38.85 billion pieces in demand for plastic packaging express delivery using biodegradable plastics by 2025; In 2025, the potential demand increment for corrugated paper used for express packaging is 4.5966 million tons, and the potential demand increment for biodegradable plastics is 1.5878 million tons.
In recent years, the e-commerce business has grown rapidly, and the express delivery business has flourished. From 2013 to 2016, the total growth rate of China's express delivery business remained above 50%.
From 2017 to 2019, although the growth rate declined, it still maintained a growth rate of over 20. In 2018, the business volume of express delivery service enterprises reached 50.71 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. In 2019, the total volume of my express delivery business reached 63.52 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%.
According to the growth rate of express delivery business in recent years, it is estimated that by 2025, the volume of express delivery business will reach 134.9 billion pieces, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.4%.
According to the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution", key provinces and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong will pilot the ban of disposable plastic packaging. In 2019, the total volume of express delivery services in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong provinces and cities was 30.586 billion pieces, accounting for 48.17% of the total volume of express delivery services.
According to the survey data of the "Research Report on the Characteristics and Management Status of Packaging Waste in China Express" jointly released by environmental organizations Greenpeace, Free from Plastic Constraints, and China Environmental Protection Federation, in 2018, China Express mainly used corrugated cardboard boxes and plastic bags for packaging. Among them, corrugated cardboard boxes account for 44.0% (by quantity), and plastic bags account for 33.5%.
According to the material type, express packaging materials can be divided into paper and plastic categories. In 2018, I consumed a total of 8.5605 million tons of paper-based express packaging materials, accounting for 90.95% of the total express packaging materials; 851800 tons of plastic packaging materials, accounting for 9.05% of express packaging materials.
Among them, paper packaging is mainly made of corrugated paper, accounting for a high proportion of 96.18%.
According to the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution", by 2022, non degradable plastics will be banned from express plastic packaging in key provinces and cities, and by 2025, non degradable plastics will be banned from express delivery.
The materials that can replace non degradable plastics are paper packaging (mainly corrugated paper) and degradable plastics. Assuming that 30% of non degradable plastic materials are replaced by paper materials and 70% are replaced by degradable plastics, the proportion of plastic packaging express delivery will decrease to 35.2 by 2022 and 28.8 by 2025.
Compared to 2019 (calculated by proportion), the impact of the plastic ban will lead to a potential increase of 16.59 billion pieces in demand for paper packaging express delivery by 2025, and a potential increase of 38.85 billion pieces in demand for plastic packaging express delivery using biodegradable plastics (the proportion of biodegradable plastics used in plastic packaging express delivery in 2019 is much lower than 1, ignored).
In paper packaging express delivery, corrugated paper accounts for 96.18% of the total usage. Based on a single piece of paper packaging express delivery weighing 288.08 grams and a single piece of plastic packaging weighing 40.87 grams, it is estimated that in 2025, due to the impact of the plastic ban, the potential demand for corrugated paper used for express packaging will increase by 4.5966 million tons, and the potential demand for biodegradable plastics will increase by 1.5878 million tons